Discover how risk-neutral probabilities adjust for risk and ensure fair asset pricing in financial markets; explore their ...

CEOs and CFOs of our portfolio companies often ask us, “How aggressive should we be when we set our budget? We want to grow as fast as possible and invest in our exciting new programs. But if we aim ...

Clinical trial transition probabilities, the probability that a drug product moves from one clinical phase to the next, are used to assess the efficiency of drug development and in the valuation of ...

Building a good sales forecast involves techniques that fall somewhere between science and art. While it is possible to construct a rigorous objective forecasting model, the human element in sales ...

One of the big changes in election coverage that emerged in 2016 was the widespread use of predictions expressed as probabilities. Once the private vice of data geeks, just about everyone in the ...

In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, he faced a range of estimates — anywhere from 30 to 95 percent that the man spotted in the ...

John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their ...