News

Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions emphasises high uncertainty
The summary of opinions of the Bank of Japan’s May meeting, published on Tuesday, showed that rate-setters worried about the ...
A bad scenario for the UK
While the good news is that the ONS will start using scanner data from March next year, the bad news is that inflation has again been overestimated in the UK. For more on this read my colleague Louis ...
Two BoE policymakers warn against rushing to further cut interest rates
UK inflation pressures should continue to weaken on the back of easing pay growth and Donald Trump’s trade war, a Bank of England rate-setter has said, but caution “remains appropriate” over the ...
De-escalation and the damage done
Finally, the China de-escalation may not be enough to free the Fed to cut rates. The Fed is looking at firm employment data, ...
Spring sunshine and late Easter boost UK consumer spending
UK consumer spending grew strongly in April, boosted by warmer weather and the late timing of Easter, despite increased uncertainty over US trade tariffs and rising costs, industry data showed.
UK jobs market will keep Bank of England in gradual mode for now
Faster moving payroll data showed that the number of UK employees fell by 33,000 in April, again not indicative that the UK jobs market was facing a cliff-edge moment. The fall in payroll jobs in ...
Federal Reserve holds rates, warning of risks to inflation and unemployment
The Fed did acknowledge the rise in stagflationary risks since tariff announcements in April, stating that it was “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of ...
Rebound in services inflation will not alter ECB’s dovish stance
The change in language at the ECB’s April meeting was notable regarding services inflation. Having said at its March meeting that “wages and some services prices were still adjusting to the past ...
March PCE offers little to suggest the Fed needs to cut rates
PCE inflation data from March, released on Wednesday, indicates that price pressures and economic activity remained resilient ...
The UK’s inflation figures were wrong and now we just have to live with that
According to Kantar, Tesco currently has a 27.8 per cent share of the UK’s grocery market. According to Tesco, Clubcard sales penetration in the UK is 84 per cent. Ergo, just under a quarter of all UK ...
Budget games, taxes and Treasuries
Treasury yields have come down in the past three weeks, but all the work has been done by falling real interest rates (probably signalling lower growth expectations). Most measures of the term premium ...
Bank of England delivers regular-sized rate cut amid three-way vote split
The decision in favour of a cut was clear on the committee. Two members of the MPC — Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra — voted ...